Article in Asia Policy 19.4
The Changing Dynamics of China’s Threat Perception toward India
A Shift from Asymmetry to Symmetry?
This article studies Chinese literature on China’s threat perception of India and argues that the threat perception between the two rising powers is growing more symmetric in the current dynamics of international politics.
Executive Summary
MAIN ARGUMENT
The India-China relationship has major implications for how world politics are shaped, yet how China perceives a sense of threat from India is an understudied phenomenon. Whereas most literature on this relationship has observed an asymmetric threat perception between the two states, with India identifying a greater threat from China than the other way around, the dynamics of international politics are causing China to become more cautious about its security and take notice of a greater threat coming from India. As a result, the level of threat perception is becoming more balanced. This shift in perception will have major implications for the overall dynamics of bilateral relations and make the relationship more confrontational and conflictual.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
- India’s fast-growing economy, demographic dividend, geographic position, and growing strategic partnerships have made it a more confident and assertive foreign policy actor. Chinese scholars have taken note of these changes.
- India’s assertive border policy and partnership with the U.S. pose a growing challenge to China’s power. This will make Beijing wary about actions that it previously overlooked due the asymmetry in the relationship. At the same time, because for India any Chinese action is presumed as threatening, China’s growing wariness will further enhance India’s threat perception. This emerging dynamic could instigate a spiral of competition.
- Confrontation in Sino-Indian relations will further strengthen U.S.-Indian relations and move India closer to the U.S. camp.
- With both India and China being rising powers, their relationship will have major geopolitical implications for how the Asian century will play out.
Soumyodeep Deb is a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and International Affairs at Lingnan University, Hong Kong (China).
Li Jiayue is a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and International Affairs at Lingnan University, Hong Kong (China).
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Asia Policy is a peer-reviewed scholarly journal presenting policy-relevant academic research on the Asia-Pacific that draws clear and concise conclusions useful to today’s policymakers. Asia Policy is published quarterly in January, April, July, and October and accepts submissions on a rolling basis. Learn more