NBR Project Report
Russia's Peacetime Demographic Crisis
Dimensions, Causes, Implications
This report represents the culmination of a three-year research project on Russia’s political economy, as examined through the unique prism of that country’s demographic profile. The report starts with an examination of the “arithmetic of Russian depopulation” by examining how the country’s trends in births, deaths, and migration reveal the drivers behind the massive and unprecedented depopulation. The report then looks beyond the numbers, examining less-explored aspects of Russia’s population profile such as population aging, education and labor productivity, and social capital, which are key to a society’s prosperity. This report sheds new light on the challenges presented by Russia’s depopulation, with critical implications for U.S. policy and international politics.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Russia’s Demographic Crisis: Not a “Normal Country” Problem
Part I
Fewer but Not Better: The Demographics of Russia’s Depopulation
Chapter 1
Depopulation, with Modern Russian Characteristics
Chapter 2
Russia’s New Patterns of Fertility and Family Formation since the End of Communism: Shock or Transition
Chapter 3
Russia’s Ominous Patterns of Mortality and Morbidity: Pioneering New and Modern Pathways to Poor Health and Premature Death
Chapter 4
The Terrible Mystery of Extreme Mortality in Modern Russia: Searching for Explanations and Answers to a Deadly Puzzle
Chapter 5
Migration: Russia’s Unfamiliar New Dilemmas of Personal Choice
Part II
Russia’s Human Resources in Disarray: The Demographic Crisis beyond the Population Count
Chapter 6
Population Aging: Toward a Russia That Is Gray, Sick, and Poor
Chapter 7
Education and Labor Productivity in Russia: High Levels of Schooling, Low Levels of Human Capital
Chapter 8
“Social Capital” in Russia: An Attitude Problem, on a National Scale
Conclusion
A Demographic Reckoning for Russia