2024 People’s Liberation Army Conference

A World-Class Military? Assessing the PLA’s Progress Toward Its Midcentury Goal

On June 14–16, 2024, the National Bureau of Asian Research, the China Strategic Focus Group at U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and the University of Virginia’s National Security Policy Center convened the 2024 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Conference in Charlottesville, Virginia. The conference brought together a primarily in-person audience comprised of the world’s leading specialists on the PLA from academia, government, military, and policy research organizations. Participants included both U.S.-based experts and those representing the United States’ Indo-Pacific allies and partners.

The 2024 PLA Conference, titled “A World-Class Military? Assessing the PLA’s Progress Toward Its Midcentury Goal,” explored the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) vision for a “world-class” PLA and assessed the Chinese military’s progress toward achieving this goal. The conference examined key military modernization milestones for the PLA, the Chinese military’s development of cutting-edge capabilities in a range of warfighting domains, development of world-class personnel, command and control, strategic technologies, and conventional (aerospace, ground forces, and maritime) and nuclear capabilities. Each focus area examined where the PLA is already or close to becoming “world-class” while also identifying obstacles the PLA still faces in developing these capabilities and the steps it is taking to overcome them.

The first panel, “What is World-Class? The PLA, Its People, and Its Problems,” assessed the CCP’s expectations for PLA modernization and how its leaders assess the force’s progress in tackling longstanding challenges in the areas of corruption and personnel quality. The first presenter established the CCP’s vision for using the PLA to achieve its goals in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, arguing that Xi Jinping envisions a world-class PLA as a holistic, world-class tool to advance PRC hard and soft power on the world stage, at the forefront of global comprehensive national power (CNP) and international influence. The second presenter examined how enduring corruption in the PLA affects its development of world-class capabilities, positing that corruption purges in the PLA underwrites the tight and enduring control of the Central Military Commission chairman, Xi Jinping, over the PLA. The third presenter explored the PLA’s degree of success in recruiting, cultivating, and employing talent to transform the PLA into a world-class force, concluding that despite progress, concern about personnel persists in the following areas: disruptions due to organizational reforms, the supply of needed skills and education, resistance to new assessment standards and career tracks, and morale and retention in the face of fierce competition for talent with the private sector.

The second panel, “Strategic Technologies in a World-Class PLA,” examined the PLA’s development of world-class military technologies and how it is integrating these technologies into its doctrine and fielded capabilities. The first presenter unpacked the PLA’s views on the role of artificial intelligence against the backdrop of a new revolution in military affairs, arguing that the development of an intelligent battlefield command system remains nascent and that China’s desire to integrate frontier technologies into the PLA is not necessarily a unique desire or standard. The second presenter assessed the PLA’s progress in achieving “deep fusion” of the national economic system and national defense system, concluding that while obstacles to the CCP’s pursuit of “deep fusion” remain, Beijing has made significant progress advancing its objectives. The third presenter explored the evolution of the PLA’s nuclear posture, concluding that despite significant changes in the operational capabilities of the nuclear force, the PRC does not intend to shift to a nuclear first-use posture and maintains the key objectives of deterring US nuclear coercion and counterattacking if struck first.

The third panel, “World-Class Capabilities in Key Warfighting Domains,” will identify areas where the PLA already possesses world-class capabilities, challenges the PLA faces in becoming fully “world-class” in some areas, and measures the PLA is taking to address remaining shortcomings. The first presenter defined the world-class requirements for the PLA Army and its ground force capabilities, concluding that a world-class ground force is one where elements operating in the land domain must be capable of contributing multi-domain offensive and defensive actions that provide an overall advantage to the PLA’s joint force in future campaigns. The second presenter examined the world-class requirements for the PLA’s maritime capabilities, finding that the PLA seeks capabilities “on par” with that of the United States Navy, albeit with a distinct mission focus. The third presenter focused on the requirements for the PLA’s air force and conventional missile forces, arguing that a world-class force is a work in progress for both services. Although the PLA Air Force has undergone a force-wide modernization, issues in hardware, personnel, training, and corruption continue to pose challenges. Meanwhile, the conventional missile forces are closer to world-class but similarly faces shortcomings in corruption, equipment maintenance, personnel, leadership, and indigenous technological innovation.

The 2024 conference concluded with a synthesis discussion featuring the conference organizers which sought to tackle the fundamental question of what a “world-class” military really means. The organizers solicited questions, answers, and perspectives from the audience to synthesize previous conversations and identify unanswered questions, disagreements, and new insights to inform collective thinking on the future of the Chinese military’s modernization.

The conference featured keynote remarks from RADM (ret.) Michael Studeman, former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and Director of Intelligence at U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and LtGen Stephen Sklenka, then Deputy Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

Conference proceedings are expected to be published in 2025 as an edited conference volume.