Regional Economic Implications of DPRK Security Behavior

The “Bold Switchover” Conference

NBR analyzed the potential domestic and regional economic benefits that would emerge from a potential North Korean “bold switchover” in security policy with a conference in Beijing on January 18–19, 2006, entitled “Regional Economic Implications of DPRK Security Behavior: The ‘Bold Switchover’ Concept.”

Over the course of two days, conference participants—representatives from the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and China—examined the ways in which this hypothetical relaxation of North Korea’s security posture would affect regional trade, investment, output, and employment. Participants also explored the benefits that would accrue to the North Korean economy, and touched upon some of the potential regional responses in terms of financial aid.

Conference Report

The conference report provides a broad overview and ten themes that emerged during the conference.

Conference report: Regional Implications of DPRK Security Behavior: The “Bold Switchover” Concept

Chinese translation: 中文版

Conference Papers

“Economic Implications of a ‘Bold Switchover’ in DPRK Security Policy” by Nicholas Eberstadt provides an overview of the “bold switchover” concept, and examines the economic benefits that would result if Pyongyang shifted from its “military-first politics” to “defense sufficiency.”

“Korean Reunification and Reconstruction: Circumstances, Costs, and Implications” by Charles Wolf examines the issues and costs associated with Korean reunification.

“Economic Transition of North Korea and International Assistance: Implications of Japan-DPRK Normalization” by Masahiro Kawai nvestigates strategies for a North Korean transition toward a market economy and assesses conditions for international assistance with such a transition.

“Implications of a ‘Bold Switchover’ in Security Policy for Involving Financial Institutions in Financing North Korean Economic Development” by Bradley Babson examines the involvement of international financial institutions (IFIs) in financing North Korean economic development.

“Economic and Social Implications of China-DPRK Border Trade for China’s Northeast” by Li Dunqiu assesses the economic and social implications of China-DPRK border trade for China’s Northeast region.

“The Economic Implications of a North Korean Nuclear Breakout” by Marcus Noland discusses the economic impact of a North Korean nuclear break out, either in the form of a nuclear test or proliferation.

“The Structural Crises and the Survival Strategies of North Korea” by Zhao Huji analyzes North Korean strategies for dealing with the country’s economic and political crises.