Asia’s Space Ambitions
Driving the Next Chapter in Global Space Competition

Introduction

Vina Nadjibulla and Charles Labrecque

The United States in Space: Strategies, Capabilities, and Vision

Greg Autry

China’s Space Activities: Drivers, Trends, and Progress

R. Lincoln Hines

Japan in the International Space Order

Saadia M. Pekkanen

India’s Space Program: Increasing Proactivism

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

South Korea’s Space Policy and Leap to Space Power

Sangwoo Shin

Canada’s Next Frontier: Connecting Commercial Capabilities to a National Strategy

Brian Gallant and Jordan Miller

Australia’s Maturing Space Capabilities in a National and Regional Context

Cassandra Steer

Navigating the Cosmos: Singapore’s Strategic Ambitions in Space amid U.S.-China Competition

Hema Nadarajah

Introduction

by Vina Nadjibulla and Charles Labrecque

The use of space assets has become an integral part of life on Earth, impacting humanity in unprecedented ways. From the smartphones in our pockets to the weather forecasts vital for agriculture, space technology plays a crucial role in communication, navigation, safety, and security. Today, many of our daily activities rely on the thousands of operational satellites orbiting the planet that make up the global network underpinning modern communication. Beyond international prestige, deep space exploration has led to numerous scientific and technological advancements in areas such as health, information technology, and industrial productivity.

More than ever, space is recognized as a critical operational domain for national security alongside air, land, sea, and cyberspace. Space is essential for military operations globally, with militaries increasingly dependent on space assets for power projection and national defense. According to a recent Space Foundation report, global military space budgets surged 18% to $57 billion in 2023, making up nearly half of total government spending on space.[1] Strategic competition between states, especially the competition between the United States and China, extends into space, heightening the risk of increasing militarization and even weaponization of this new domain.

At the same time, the space domain has expanded, involving a diverse array of actors and activities, with the private sector playing a growing and indispensable role, further complicating interactions in space. While governments still drive the majority of space activities, key components and missions are now contracted out to private firms. This new era, often called “Space 4.0,” is defined by dynamic partnerships between governments, the private sector, and society.[2] According to a 2024 report by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company, the space economy, valued at $630 billion, is projected to triple and reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, creating even more opportunities for private actors in the coming years.[3]

Today, nearly 80 countries have space programs, compared with 40 in 2000. Asia, as highlighted by Saadia Pekkanen in this roundtable, boasts the “world’s greatest concentration of countries with independent space capabilities,” which positions the region at the forefront of a modern space race. As nations increasingly recognize the domain’s strategic and economic importance, they are rushing to invest in and develop pivotal space capabilities and competing to explore and exploit outer space. While the Outer Space Treaty has facilitated the governance of space since its adoption in 1967, this new space race has triggered a debate over the need for a new legal framework to help manage intensified competition and increased congestion.

Four years after a 2020 roundtable in Asia Policy entitled “Asia in Space: The Race to the Final Frontier,” this issue offers a reassessment of the region’s four major space powers: the United States, China, Japan, and India, and a review of four middle powers: South Korea, Canada, Australia, and Singapore. Each essay analyzes recent initiatives and developments in these countries’ space programs and commercial space sectors, as well as their implications.

The roundtable begins with an essay by Greg Autry on U.S. space programs. He argues that the United States maintains its dominant role in global space activities, which enjoy rare bipartisan support. He describes the breadth of U.S. space efforts as “extending across multiple government agencies and includ[ing] thousands of commercial firms and dozens of nonprofits.” He explains that the centerpiece of the U.S. space policy is now the Artemis Accords, which seek to solidify and document support for the American interpretation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Of the eight countries examined in this roundtable, only China is not a part of this U.S.-led set of arrangements.

In the second essay, R. Lincoln Hines describes China’s growing space ambitions, especially as it narrows the capabilities gap with the long-dominant United States. He highlights China’s recent advancements in military counterspace capabilities, which pose a challenge to U.S. space dominance and freedom of action. However, Hines cautions against “exaggerating China’s advantages,” at least for now. He notes that what China lacks is “an alternative to the U.S.-led Artemis Accords” and the “political capital to translate such a vision into reality.”

In her essay on Japan, Saadia Pekkanen examines the country’s recent space-related developments and the driving factors behind its decision-making, which she describes as motivated by threat perceptions and a changing external environment. She explains that Japan is advancing its space capabilities through a coordinated approach that integrates military, economic, and diplomatic dimensions, with a focus on both commercial and security interests. Pekkanen also describes Japan’s international collaborations, which extend well beyond its alliance with the United States, remarking that Japan engages on “economic and defense issues with a range of other actors.”

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, in her essay, details the significant advancements India has made in its space capabilities, despite operating with a relatively small budget. She explains that while India’s space program continues to prioritize its space capacities for social and economic progress, it “now appears to be expanding…to include military and security dimensions in a more determined manner.” This shift reflects an “intensifying space competition in [its] neighborhood, especially China’s growing counterspace capabilities.”

Sangwoo Shin provides an overview of South Korea’s new space policy, which he argues is shifting from “a catching-up strategy to taking a leading role in space innovation.” Guided by the establishment of the Korea AeroSpace Administration in May 2024, Shin explains that South Korea seeks to become “one of the world’s top-five aerospace powers as well as establishing aerospace as a key national industry.”

The authors of the essay on Canada’s space activities, Brian Gallant and Jordan Miller, describe the country’s current objectives as “focused on space exploration and national defense programs.” They emphasize Canada’s potential to expand its commercial space industry and strengthen its position in the global space economy but critique the lack of a comprehensive strategic vision and argue for better integrating the private sector into Canada’s national space policy.

Regarding Australia, Cassandra Steer explains that although the country has its own (albeit small) space agency, it lacks a cohesive “space narrative” and a clear national space policy, unlike other middle powers such as Canada and South Korea. She argues that Australia is missing a “strong, coordinated national approach” to space, and that despite being the third country to conduct its own launch from its own territory, its identity as a space nation remains nascent.

In the final essay, Hema Nadarajah describes Singapore’s space activities as representing “both an opportunity and a necessity.” She explains that, though small and possessing very few natural resources, Singapore is strategically positioning itself in the global space industry by advancing its space capabilities, fostering a commercial space sector, and engaging in international collaborations. The country sees space as essential for its economic competitiveness, technological leadership, and national security, especially in the context of intense U.S.-China competition.

Once the exclusive domain of a few nations, space has now become the next frontier for an increasing number of Indo-Pacific countries. While this roundtable focuses on the space activities of eight key nations, many others in the region are also making rapid advancements. Asia’s remarkable economic and technological growth over the past two decades has not only propelled the region to the forefront of the modern space race but also positioned it as a key driver in shaping the future of global space competition.

Greg Autry is the Associate Provost for Space Commercialization and Strategy at the University of Central Florida (United States) and a Visiting Professor in the Institute for Security Science and Technology at Imperial College London (United Kingdom).

R. Lincoln Hines is an Assistant Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology (United States). He was previously an assistant professor for the West Space Seminar at the U.S. Air War College.

Saadia M. Pekkanen is the Job and Gertrud Tamaki Endowed Professor in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington (United States), where she is also Adjunct Professor in the Department of Political Science and Adjunct Professor at the School of Law. She heads the Space Law, Data and Policy Program at the University of Washington School of Law and directs the annual Space Diplomacy Symposium.

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan is a Resident Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra (Australia).

Sangwoo Shin is a Senior Researcher at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (South Korea).

Brian Gallant is the Chief Executive Officer of Space Canada and a frequent business and political media commentator (Canada). He was the 33rd premier of New Brunswick. He is also a board member of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Jordan Miller is a PhD candidate at the Royal Military College of Canada and works in the defense and space industry (Canada). He is also Vice-Chair of Space Canada’s Public Policy and Advocacy Committee.

Cassandra Steer is Chair and Founder of the Australian Centre for Space Governance and Deputy Director (Mission Specialists) at the Australian National University Institute for Space (Australia). Globally recognized for her expertise in space law, governance, and security, she has consulted for the Australian, Canadian, and U.S. governments on these issues.

Hema Nadarajah is Program Manager, Southeast Asia, with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Endnotes

[1] Space Foundation, “Space Foundation Announces $570B Space Economy in 2023, Driven
by Steady Private and Public Sector Growth,” July 18, 2024, https://www.spacefoundation.
org/2024/07/18/the-space-report-2024-q2.

[2] “What Is Space 4.0?” European Space Agency, https://www.esa.int/About_Us/
Ministerial_Council_2016/What_is_space_4.0.

[3] “Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth,” World Economic
Forum and McKinsey & Company, April 8, 2024, https://www.weforum.org/publications/
space-the-1-8-trillion-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth.