“No One Can Force Vietnam to Choose Sides"
Vietnam as a Self-Reliant Middle Power

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MAIN ARGUMENT

In the past few years, Vietnam has been increasingly labeled as a middle power. Vietnam’s emerging middle-power status coincides with a shifting strategic environment marked by China’s expansionism that has nudged Vietnam toward closer U.S. relations. However, Vietnam’s persistent foreign policy of self-reliance and independence, informed by the country’s historical experiences and concerns over regime security, ensures that Hanoi stays nonaligned. Thus, while retaining autonomy in developing closer U.S. ties, Vietnam strikes a delicate balance between the two superpowers. Instead of relying on a single security guarantor, Vietnam has actively sought to promote rules-based principles and multilateralism in advancing its national interests, particularly vis-à-vis the South China Sea and the Mekong River. However, external and internal developments have strained Vietnam’s ability to balance between the two superpowers.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• While increasingly wary of China’s behavior, Vietnam is unlikely to enter a formal alliance with the U.S. due to its firmly held values of self-reliance and independence.
• Vietnam will continue to leverage multidirectional diplomacy to shape regional security and economic architectures in an effort to counterbalance China’s influence and reduce Vietnamese dependence on China.
• Vietnam should exercise more flexibility and show greater resolve in protecting its national interests. To this end, without abandoning its foreign policy of self-reliance and independence, Vietnam should explore new options to advance security cooperation with other major and middle powers with which it shares strategic interests.

Phan Xuan Dung is a Research Officer at the Vietnam Studies Program at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute (Singapore).